Eddie Barnes: It may sound cuckoo, but Labour thinks spring has sprung

WHISPER it, but did Labour have a not-too-bad time of it in Aviemore this weekend?

Outside the conference venue, the Cairngorms are still cloaked in snow and the Highland air freezes at night, but defiant daffodils are poking through the ground, showing that the seasons are changing. Labour too gives the impression of being perched tantalisingly between winter and spring, unsure whether the Big Freeze is over, or if a thaw is heading their way.

Make no mistake, there are still plenty who believe the chill will continue for some time. Gloomy pessimism is in plentiful supply. The tide has gone out on the party, they sigh. Eleven years of government, at Westminster as well as Holyrood, is coming to an end. Gordon Brown is a paranoid leader with no idea of where he's going, surrounded by a few flunkies. If only Tony Blair would come back, they'd take him.

North of the border, it's just as bad. Wendy Alexander is on a kamikaze plunge by piloting the party head on into the constitution – a subject which is an utter turn off to most of the public but meat and drink to the nationalists. Most of her MSPs are useless and the party's in a mess. On Friday, the conference reverberated to the sound of furious lobbyists and visitors who had been made to wait for three hours to receive their passes. Labour: the Terminal 5 of political parties.

But, hold on. This bleak view was challenged in Aviemore by the party's optimistic spring lambs. Of course we've had hard times, they declare, but this is when we need to back each other – hunker down, unite and then strike back at the enemy. The tone has moved on from the navel-gazing of the last year, following the party's defeat. Now there is talk of turning points, of the end of the SNP honeymoon, and of Labour's fortunes restoring. The chaos of Alexander's first few months, when she was thrown off course by revelations about her campaign expenses, seems to have abated.

Aides claim they have had three good weeks on the trot – a near miracle in recent Labour terms. Alexander's speech yesterday, in which she attempted to set clear battle lines between 'socialist' Labour fighting tax-cutting SNP, will give the party a sense of direction. There's nothing like hauling up the red flag to get the party faithful on board.

The positive vibes coming from Alexander's camp also derive from the fact that they believed Salmond's hold on the public imagination is beginning to wane. The nasty wobble over the SNP's local income tax plans, the confusion last week over the voting system for a future referendum, and even claims that Salmond was booed at Hampden Park have all given Labour hope that the First Minister can no longer rely on the warm glow of public approval. It was always going to be thus of course: no leader remains popular for ever. It isn't a bad moment this week for Salmond to head over to the States, where he will be able to enjoy a much needed break from the Holyrood bearpit and take part in some leisurely statesmanship.

It was notable that most of the cheer this weekend was coming from Labour's Holyrood contingent, with the cold gloom mostly emanating from Westminster. Mostly, it's justified. A poll of polls put together by the SNP yesterday showed that the Nationalists are now four points ahead of Labour at Westminster. With Salmond and David Cameron forming a pincer movement, it is little wonder that Scots Labour MPs feel a little anxious.

Equally, the optimism of Labour at Holyrood is surely a little premature. Council tax freezes and the cancellation of the graduate endowment will kick in next week, courtesy of the SNP. They remain well ahead in the polls and look set to stay there. But maybe Team Alexander's optimism is due to the fact that, having already lost an election, they feel they have already seen the worst. No such comfort for the Westminster crew.

Oddly for Alexander, the turmoil of her first few months in power may now come to her aid. The pressure she was put under has largely united Labour MSPs behind her. She taken the worst that the media can throw at her, and still survived. This weekend, she appears to have found a clearer message to sell to the party. And it helps when an opponent who for a year has seemed to be able to walk on proverbial water is now being forces to at least swim.

Spring has arrived; last night, the clock went forward. Alexander has a huge task to convince her own party of her reforms, and an even bigger one to persuade Scots she is a potential First Minister. But, like the rest of us, she has bought herself some time.