ANY doubts that today's strike at Grangemouth refinery could have serious consequences were surely swept away by the unlikely sound of the UK and Scottish Governments speaking as one on the issue, after a year of relentless mutual sniping. Perhaps because of the novelty of the double act, the signs are that most people are listening to the joint message of 'don't panic'.
Yesterday, as the shutdown of the pipeline linking Grangemouth to North Sea oil fields was confirmed, motorists, on the whole, stayed calm. The question is: will this last? As we report today, there are strong suggestions that the cost of getting pet
rol to Scotland will push up prices. Meanwhile, experts warn that the cost to the UK economy is £50m a day. As if Chancellor Alistair Darling didn't have enough to worry about, he'll today be counting the cost of an estimated £1m an hour lost in revenue normally paid as crude oil lands on these shores.
In many ways, the strike seems like a blast from the past. While the most recent comparison is with the fuel shortages caused by the tax protesters in 2000, the dispute itself feels more like an industrial battle from the 1980s. On one side we have Ineos, a large corporation run by one of Britain's richest men, determined to save money and make itself more competitive by reforming the very generous pension rights of its workers. On the other side, with little or no common ground or lines of communication between the two, is one of the largest trades unions in the UK, intent on demonstrating its ability to defend its members' rights in the 21st century.
Unlike Gordon Brown, faced by his Labour critics over the 10p tax rate, neither side has blinked. Instead, we've had a war of increasingly aggressive words which led to today and tomorrow's strike by 1,200 Unite members. Motorists and others who are paying the price of the dispute are helpless. So, to be honest, at this stage, is the Government, both at Westminster and Edinburgh. Indeed, if the administrations are forced to intervene with emergency action, such as imposing rationing or conserving dwindling supplies for emergency and key workers, then we will really be in trouble.
At the moment, it would certainly appear that the nation should not grind to a halt in the near future. It may take Grangemouth a month to get back to full production after the 48-hour strike ends, but under European Union rules the UK should always have enough petrol and diesel for at least 67.5 days. For now, petrol companies should be able to get supplies to the pumps – and they should do so without profiteering.
There are other caveats. These stockpiles are based on normal consumption rates, and if queues do start to build at forecourts, this will be in doubt. More worryingly, it seems likely that Unite and Ineos will continue to stare each other out, which will almost certainly lead to future strikes. Despite the reassurances from First Minister Alex Salmond and UK Business Secretary John Hutton, repeated action must inevitably have a major impact on fuel supplies in Scotland and beyond. This will come all the quicker if Ineos's bid to get around the strike by bringing in petrol on tankers from the continent continues to be scuppered by striking workers.
What is most disappointing is that both sides have not done more to resolve the dispute. Last week's meeting at Acas – another name from an earlier age of industrial relations – appears to have been for little more than show. Unite, in particular, has been unbending on its insistence that its members must keep their final salary pension scheme, the loss of which could cost them £10,000 each a year in retirement. Ineos was at least as bullish in the early days of the dispute. But it has at least tried to compromise, suggesting consultation on existing workers' rights and the closure of the final salary scheme to new workers from August 1.
Unite may be right to eye this offer with suspicion. But if queues build at forecourts and fuel prices do rise as a result of the dispute, sympathy with its position will wane among the general public, few of whom (other than some lucky public servants) can dream of such generous pension provisions as those enjoyed by the striking Grangemouth workers.
The full article contains 737 words and appears in Scotland On Sunday newspaper.
