Affluent battleground balanced on knife-edge majority of 405

NIGEL Griffiths has been the MP for Edinburgh South since 1987 and is a "weel-kent" face in the area – indeed a prominent image of his face dominates his local constituency office and he has mounted a series of major campaigns in local newspapers on behalf of constituents.

Political opponents yesterday spoke of his "big personal vote" in the area and many are privately thrilled he has gone, their glee increased by the timing of his announcement.

Both the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives harbour high hopes of gaining the seat, and have poured resources into the area, establishing two high-profile candidates.

Labour activists now fear their new candidate will have to work hard to achieve a similar recognition among the voters.

Edinburgh South is 76th on the list of Conservative target seats in the UK and the No4 seat being targeted by the Lib Dems. It is not hard to see why. In 2005, Mr Griffiths was elected with a majority of just 405, his 11,452 lead having all but crumbled.

Boundary changes may have played some part in that, but the Tories and Lib Dems have been emboldened by the sex scandal that engulfed Mr Griffiths last year, as well as the lingering perception he is fiercely loyal to the unpopular Gordon Brown.

They will also be encouraged by the demographics of the seat, which do not suggest a diehard Labour vote, despite the length of Mr Griffiths's service.

Its boundaries enclose the affluent areas of Morningside, Comiston and Newington, as well as the large detached houses of the Grange and Merchiston.

There is a small immigrant and ethnic minority population, coupled with a high level of graduates among the population. Homeowners make up 73 per cent of voters, with very few in social housing or housing association properties, suggesting it could be fertile ground for the Conservatives.

The Lib Dems, meanwhile, will be heartened by the evident centre-left electoral tendencies and previous election results that saw them returned there in second place. Despite this, Labour activists cling to the hope that the strong Tory and Lib Dem polling evidence might see the anti-Labour vote split. Despite grumblings around the short notice, some believe a fresh candidate, untainted by expenses or sex scandal, might help them claim an unlikely win.

• Other key statistics include:

Population: 85,796

Male: 47.2%

Female: 52.8%

Under-18: 19.9%

Over 60: 20.1%

White: 94.9%

Christian: 54.3%

Muslim: 1.7%

Graduates: 39.5%

No qualifications: 18.9%

Council housing: 9.8%