Analysis

SNP conference: Rutherglen by-election sparks SNP reset as Humza Yousaf attempts to regain lost ground

Humza Yousaf’s speech was an attempt to reset the SNP’s relationship with a cynical, financially insecure electorate

If there was a question posed by the Rutherglen by-election for the SNP, Humza Yousaf’s speech in Aberdeen was an attempt at an answer.

The SNP remains a party in crisis, one lunging in the dark in the hope of finding stable ground after its previous reliable foundations were ripped from below.

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At every stage so far in Yousaf’s time as First Minister, whichever platform chosen to rebuild the party from has crumbled to dust underneath the SNP leader. For once, however, Mr Yousaf’s luck appears to have changed.

His speech attempted to portray him as a nascent statesman, an internationalist who will work hard and “roll up our sleeves” to deliver for party and country.

Demanding a resettlement scheme for Gazans piles pressure onto the UK parties to follow suit or appear heartless. It is clever, brave politics, keeps him on the TV and is yet another dividing line with UK Labour.

The heart of the speech, however, reflects this is the SNP fearful of an existential defeat, broadcasting the fact they are listening to voters in a desperate attempt to regain their trust.

In that sense, it shouldn’t surprise the policy announcements ticked every focus group box in terms of what voters prioritise.

Millions for the NHS, tick, focus on business and the economy, tick, investing in Scotland, tick.

The council tax freeze is a response to how well Labour capitalised on the planned rise in Rutherglen, and is a clear indication of the panic within the SNP leadership.

While the richest will still pay the most, as Mr Yousaf repeated, the message is that ordinary folk will not feel the Government’s hand in their pockets during a cost-of-living crisis. But this sparks political friction.

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The reintroduction of a council tax freeze has already infuriated local government and has effectively marginalised the Scottish Greens.

Future planned income tax rises, backed by Mr Yousaf during his leadership bid and a key plank of the Scottish Green offering, must surely be next to go.

In this regard the speech was, in part, an admission of failure. Prior supporters are abandoning the SNP which they no longer trust to deliver, backing instead a Labour party who offers immediate change.

The SNP leadership is aware it must provide a reason to vote for them at the next election.

By so clearly drawing a line in the sand on values and stating clearly what Mr Yousaf’s SNP stands for, there is a hope the SNP message of ‘we will have your and Scotland’s back’ cuts through.

But fundamentally this is a reactionary response to an existential crisis for the party, one which must result in at least the halt of the ongoing slide in the polls to be meaningful.

Speaking afterwards, one insider posed the rhetorical question “when was the last time we took the initiative?” It is a gamble, one the party with the self-confidence of the Nicola Sturgeon era would have been unlikely to take.

Voters will take some convincing this incarnation of the SNP is worth voting for and the significant numbers of empty seats suggest members and businesses also remain unconvinced.

This is, however, Mr Yousaf in counter-attack mode. Whether he can land a blow on Sir Keir Starmer and Anas Sarwar’s seemingly irrepressible rise to power remains unknown.

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