Prof John Curtice: Tories face tough task to '˜win big'
Professor John Curtice suggested the Prime Minister would need a lead greater than ten points to get the large government majority she wants.
Mrs May, who has a fragile working majority of just 17 in the Commons, said she wants “unity” at Westminster as talks on Brexit begin in earnest with the European Union.
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Hide AdThe Tories currently lead Labour by an average of 17 points in opinion polls, which Prof Curtice acknowledged would be enough to secure a landslide on 8 June. But he said that with the SNP expected to win the majority of Scottish seats, putting the nation “out of the game” in terms of forming a government, it has become a lot harder to win a large Commons majority.
He said: “An awful lot of Labour seats are astonishingly safe and therefore even with a 15-point lead, well yes I think Theresa May at that point will get past the 100 majority mark.
“But let’s just imagine that the lead falls back to seven, back in 2015, a seven-point lead over Labour was only enough to get a majority of 12 and that was only achieved by winning a lot of seats off the Liberal Democrats.”