Crisis will test the Belarus hardman

SOARING prices in the ex-Soviet republic of Belarus seem bound to dent the popularity of authoritarian president Alexander Lukashenko, but he has yet to show he is ready to relax his tight grip in the country to win Western aid.

Mr Lukashenko, in power since 1994 and once described as Europe’s last dictator by the last US administration, is still holding key opposition figures in jail following a crackdown on a rally against his re-election last December.

Since then, a currency crisis – caused mainly by pre-election overspending on public sector wages – has drained state coffers of dollars, triggered two big devaluations of the national currency and pushed up prices for staple foods.

This has undermined the policies of Mr Lukashenko, a populist leader who early in his rule asked people: “Do you want democracy or sausage on your table?”

While there are no overt signs of discontent among factory workers, Mr Lukashenko’s base, the crisis has emboldened the liberal and nationalist opposition.

Young intellectuals, outside the opposition mainstream, are promising a new season of public silent protests, organised through social networking sites.

Against that background, the European Union – Belarus’s biggest trading partner after Russia and a huge market for vital exports such as refined oil products, potash and textiles – is seeking to increase pressure on Mr Lukashenko.

The bloc was caught by surprise by the crackdown last December, which ran counter to EU expectations for the election.

Conscious now of opposition claims that it has been naïve in dealing with Mr Lukashenko, the bloc is telling him that if he wants to end his isolation, all political prisoners must be freed and allowed to continue their opposition activity.