Wine price forecast will have corks popping in Bordeaux

FINE wine prices will continue their dizzy ascent into the stratosphere, corks will become a rarity, France will be overtaken by Spain and instead of Australian chardonnay we’ll all be drinking Argentinean malbec.

That is the forecast of Robert Parker, the world’s most influential wine critic, who says there will be seismic changes in the industry over the next 15 years.

Among his 12 predictions, published in next month’s issue of the American magazine Food & Wine, his most contentious is that the world’s finest wines, will be "more expensive and more difficult to obtain" as "competition for the world’s greatest wines will increase exponentially".

Demand will be stoked, he says, by the burgeoning interest in fine wine in developing economies in South America, Asia, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia.

He says: "Americans may scream bloody murder when looking at the future prices for the 2003 first-growth Bordeaux [an average of 2,300 a case], but if my instincts are correct, ten years from now a great vintage of these first growths will cost over 5,600 a case ... at the minimum. It is simple: the quantity of these great wines is finite, and the demand for them will become at least ten times greater."

But there is bad news for the rest of the French wine industry, which Parker predicts will come under increasing pressure.

He says: "The French caste system will become even more stratified. The top 5 per cent of the estates will turn out the most compelling wines and receive increasingly astronomical prices for them.

"However, France’s obsession with tradition and maintaining the status quo will result in the bankruptcy and collapse of many producers who refuse to recognise the competitive nature of the global wine market."

He argues that the future lies elsewhere, saying: "Look for Spain to continue to soar. Today it is emerging as a leader in wine quality and creativity, combining the finest characteristics of tradition with a modern and progressive wine-making philosophy."

By 2015, wines bottled with corks will be in the minority, he claims, as a direct result of the failure of the cork industry to invest in techniques that prevent "corked" wines. A corked wine is afflicted with a musty, mouldy, wet-basement smell, and that accounts for up to 15 per cent of all wine bottles.

"The consequences of this laissez-faire attitude will be dramatic. More and more state-of-the-art wineries are moving to screw caps for wines that need to be consumed within three to four years of the vintage [about 95 per cent of the world’s wines]. Look for this trend to accelerate."

Parker forecasts that Malbec, a black grape variety once popular in Bordeaux but more readily associated with Argentina, will be the tipple of choice.

He writes: "Both inexpensive and delicious, this French varietal, which failed so miserably on its home soil in Bordeaux, has reached startling heights of quality in Argentina. By 2015, this long-ignored grape’s place in the pantheon of noble wines will be guaranteed."