TRADING figures from supermarket leader Tesco this week are expected to reveal that it has taken a knock from rival chains.
Analysts expect chief executive Sir Terry Leahy to say that the UK's biggest retailer will report a 4% increase in like-for-like sales, excluding petrol. This compares with a 5.9% hike in third-quarter trading last year.
But they have warned that
there is also scope for disappointment following the successful Christmas trading enjoyed by Sainsbury's, Asda and Morrisons.
The news comes as the market braces itself for "more shocks" as a slew of retailers, such as HMV, Woolworths and Debenhams, update on festive trading.
It has been a mixed year for retailers so far, although supermarket trading appears to be one of the few bright spots from the high street.
Sainsbury's posted 3.7% like-for-like growth over the Christmas period, with Waitrose also ahead, reporting a 6.1% year-on-year increase in sales for the five weeks to January 5.
Recent research from TNS said till rolls for the supermarkets were up an average of 5% in the 12 weeks to December 30. The data suggested Morrisons was the big winner, with sales in the period growing at nearly twice the rate of its three big rivals.
Retail analyst Nick Bubb at Pali International said although Tesco's trading figures were "healthy", there was also scope for disappointment.
He said: "The December data that came out a couple of days ago didn't look that good for Tesco. It is a matter of whether the extra week they report on could make a difference and whether the inclusion of things like the Tesco direct catalogue can make a difference.
"I wouldn't be surprised if it was nearer 3%. They are definitely under some pressure from Morrisons."
Richard Dodd, from the British Retail Consortium, said its monthly retail index for Scotland, due out this week, is unlikely to bring any cheer for retailers north of the border. Although traditionally Scotland has fared slightly better than the rest of the UK, due to differences in the economy and housing market, Dodd suggests that Scotland won't have got off lightly this time.
He said: "In November, the impression from our Scottish retail monitor was that the slowdown that has been affecting the whole of the UK for some time has actually caught up with Scotland.
"In November, the growth in Scotland was actually lower than the UK as a whole, which was quite unusual."
Scotland's largest furniture manufacturer and retailer, Reid, said it had seen a 13.7% jump in sales over the Christmas trading period. Its chief executive, Alan Marnie, said that despite the challenging market conditions, he remained confident in delivering growth on the previous year.
Analysts at Citigroup and Lehman Brothers are forecasting a 1% drop in Debenhams' like-for-like sales for the 19 weeks to January 12, while analysts predict Woolworths' main chain will struggle to generate like-for-like sales growth in the year ahead.
The full article contains 516 words and appears in Scotland On Sunday newspaper.
